The Iowa Daily Report -- Saturday, January 17, 2004

* QUOTABLE:

"This is the wildest, most intriguing and certainly the potentially closest finish in Iowa I've ever seen," Dean pollster Paul Maslin said.

The Iowa Caucuses are still the same as when he last covered them according to humorist Dave Barry, "It's still a lot of people in rooms waving signs,"

"Howard Dean asleep is better than George Bush awoke," Sharpton said on CBS's "The Late Late Show with Craig Kilborn." The taped interview will air Monday night.

"A race rooted mainly in attacking the president may not take Dean far enough. Voters want someone who's been through the fire. They care about character. They want to know the evolution of the man, even if it's a myth," comments NY Times op-ed Maureen Dowd after not getting a scheduled call from Howard Dean.

"You know why I am wearing a sweater is because Tom Harkin is wearing a sweater and Tom Harkin doesn't like dressing up in a coat and a tie, and when you have Tom Harkin taking you around you wear what Tom Harkin is more comfortable with," said Howard Dean regarding changes in dress code.

"This president has lost 3.3 million jobs. That's more jobs than the last 11 presidents put together. He was handed the best economy in 50 years. There were 22 million new jobs created in seven years. We took a $5 trillion deficit and turned it into a $5 trillion surplus. It was a great economy, and here comes "W." In a little less than three years, he turned everything on its head because he has only one idea in his head. That is tax cuts for the wealthiest followed by more tax cuts for the wealthiest," said Dick Gephardt.

"Things are going well. This is all down to the last 72 hours -- it's just who gets their votes out. I've just been calling around to county chairs and they're pretty optimistic that we're going to win. It's all who's committed -- whose followers are committed, whose followers are going to go. This is also about a whole lot of followers that can't be polled," Howard Dean said.

"I believe that America needs to stand up to George Bush and get corporate interests out of Washington," Dean said. "John [Edwards] is a good guy, but he's from Washington."

"This is a race to lock up the nomination before Howard's flaws emerge, before there are cracks in the facade. Well, guess what? They've come into full view," said Garrison Nelson, professor of political science at the University of Vermont, who has known Dean since 1980 and has clashed with him on occasion.

“We were kind of waltzing along and it was too easy,” said former Iowa Congressman David Nagle, a Dean backer who helped put Iowa’s caucuses on the political map as state Democrat Chairman. “If he’s going to be President, he’s going to face many tests. And this is a good one.”

“I was leaning Dean until a few days ago,” Karen Illingworth of Newton, Iowa, told canvassers for rival Dick Gephardt when they knocked on her door on a cold night this week. “I don’t like it when he says one thing one day and then is forced to say, ‘Well, I really didn’t mean that.’”

“The economy is really mixed and the numbers look better but people don’t see it in their lives,” he said. “It may be working for George Bush’s friends, but it’s not working for the average middle class family yet,” said Joe Lieberman.

"I do not believe that the American people will elect any candidate who they do not think will be as tough or tougher than Bush on terrorism," said Samuel R. Berger, the Clinton administration national security adviser who has advised most Democratic contenders. "Any Democrat has to prove that he will carry on an unrelenting and smart campaign against terrorism. But there is an opportunity here to focus on more than capturing bad guys."

Clark responding on the failure to release his medical records along with other documents said, "I'm a disabled vet. I've had my tonsils out, I've had my appendix out, I had radiation therapy when I was a child on tonsils that caused my thyroid to fail. I had my thyroid out and... I've been shot... I'm a pretty experienced consumer of health care."

"I'm Karl Rove's biggest nightmare," Wesley Clark said.

"Raise your hand if you really love the Bush tax cuts," said Dick Gephardt.

* TODAY’S OFFERINGS:

Analysis: *It’s a wild race

Joe Lieberman: *Missing the party

Wesley Clark: *Hunkering down
*Pushing openness *To arms
*Clark responds

Just Politics: *Do families matter?
*Money, money, money
*Spending reaches $90 a person

 

* CANDIDATES & CAUCUSES:

It’s a wild race

"I think its organization," Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said Friday in an interview with The Des Moines Register. "But even more than that, it's the sophistication of the people at the caucuses to persuade uncommitted Democrats."

Four candidates are bunched at the top in the first Democrat Presidential contest in Iowa. The campaigns that built solid staffs and recruited volunteers now have the best opportunity of gaining the advantage over their opponents.

Des Moines has become the “Spin City” of the world. This is the time of playing the expectations spin game. In restaurants all over Des Moines, senior Gephardt, Kerry, Dean, and Edwards campaign officials dined with major league reporters to spin the media on what to think about their candidate’s performance in the Iowa Caucuses. The goal is to convince reporters and pundits that their candidate is going to do terrible and if they do better than that then their candidate is clearly the one with the momentum coming out of Iowa. The buzzwords they’re trying hardest to plant in reporters’ minds are: ‘strong third’ or ‘strong fourth’ and ‘momentum.’

Momentum and lower expectations are diametrically opposed to each other. The NY Times has story about momentum:

"It is kind of a double-edged sword," said Mr. Bartels, the Princeton professor. "On the one hand, you want to build up expectations. But you don't want to build them up so high that come caucus night, people are disappointed."

Tonight on the 10:00 news the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll numbers will be reported. Its meaning will be much debated. With the level of intensity and organization on the ground, Monday night will be the only thing that really counts from here on in.

This is also the time of last minute attacks by mail and missteps by candidates. A past quote by Sen. John Kerry is causing that campaign a bit of concern. Kerry made some comments about reducing the Department of Agriculture during the time of Al Gore’s Reinvent Government Commission:

"Get rid of the Agriculture Department, or at least render it three-quarters the size it is today," the Democratic presidential candidate said in a story published in the Worcester (Mass.) Telegram & Gazette in 1996.

The Kerry campaign response was quick:

"Then, as now, John Kerry supports eliminating waste, fraud and abuse and creating an Agriculture Department that works better for farmers," Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said Friday.

Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, who has endorsed Howard Dean, brought the charges against Kerry without directly naming him. Dean aides later sought out reporters to make sure they knew Mr. Harkin was referring to Mr. Kerry, whom they also faulted for voting with Republicans in favor of an amendment to the 1996 farm bill that would have phased out federal farm supports over seven years. This new approach by Dean’s campaign was coordinated between himself and Dick Gephardt as both quit firing at each other and took aim at Kerry and Edwards. Dean and Gephardt have pulled their attack ads against each other off the air. But don’t expect the nasty things they are mailing into caucus attendees’ homes to be pulled…

The NY Times covers this new approach from Dean and Gephardt, and the NY Times covers Gephardt’s new approach to his stump speech:

But as the Iowa caucuses near, Mr. Gephardt has turned up the fire on a stump speech that once conveyed more plain-spoken sincerity than flash or flair. Locked in a four-way battle for Iowa caucus voters, Mr. Gephardt is working hard to engage his audience.

The Des Moines Register points out in their caucus coverage that Kerry’s statement is an exaggeration:

Kerry's claim that there were more bureaucrats than farmers was a bit of an overstatement. The USDA, which has 110,000 employees, counted more than 1.9 million farms in its 1997 census.

Kerry’s statement also required Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge to come to Kerry’s defense:

"I would never support a candidate for president of the United States who would harm Iowa's family farmers," she said in a prepared statement. "There is certainly nothing wrong in calling for government accountability. . . . He showed his leadership when he called for an overhaul of the Agriculture Department, and he will show leadership as president to continue to fight for family farmers."

Kerry continues to try to bring new participants to the caucuses by focusing on Iowa’s veterans. Former Georgia Senator Max Cleland, an amputee veteran of Vietnam, was in Sioux City drumming up support and enthusiasm with fellow vets:

"There is only one man who could get me to leave the warm climate of Georgia for the cold of Iowa in January. That person is John Kerry," Cleland said.

Gephardt is as confident as anyone. His campaign has assembled with union support -- the best traditional organization in the state’s history. "This has been an organizational force in the state that has never been seen before by anybody, Democrats or Republicans," claimed Gephardt campaign spokesman Bill Burton. "It's going to be remembered for a long time."

Edwards remains hopeful about his campaign. "This is like night and day. I'd have events like this a month ago, and we'd have 40 to 50 people. Now you can't get people into the room. It's something to see," Edwards told reporters as he prepared to leave for Council Bluffs for another six rallies fitted into the day. Edwards also believes that his organization is up to the task of converting this new enthusiasm for his candidacy into caucus delegates.

Dean has been losing support daily according to many tracking polls. The race can’t end soon enough for his campaign. They are still banking on the outside volunteers and the government and service sector unions pulling him through organizationally. The Washington Post and the Boston Globe offers a story about how Dean is off his pace. And the question is, will Dean’s newcomers show up Monday night and know how to beg and barter for delegates?

In a typical ‘look who’s supporting Dean now’ moment, Dean received the endorsement of rock singer Joan Jett who performed several of her hit songs to a packed crowd at Java Joes Coffeehouse at 214 Fourth St. in Des Moines. The songs she performed included "Bad Reputation" and "I Hate Myself for Loving You," which may not have been the best of themes considering Dean’s record of late…

Campaign manager Joe Trippi said on CNN that the campaign had budgeted $20,000 a month for travel expenses for Carol Moseley Braun and a staff aide in Braun’s new role as a surrogate for Dean in future state contests. He denied charges that the campaign was paying Braun a salary. Trippi also said there was no deal made to retire her campaign debt. He stated a "huge unity dinner" would be held after the nomination is decided to pay off the debts of unsuccessful contenders.

Dean’s authenticity and electability is called into question in an upcoming Sunday Post article:

But in our love affair with so-called reality entertainment, we don't dwell on the fact that the "reality" in reality TV is really just an affectation, and the shows are theatrical productions like any other. Melanie, a cast member of the British version of "Big Brother," once said of that show: "We were manipulated into stereotypes. That wasn't me, it was a caricature of me. . . . The power of the production is incredible. It's not real. Don't be fooled!" The current season of "The Real World" features a group of almost impossibly good-looking people in the same house with copious amounts of alcohol, a hot tub and little to do other than flirt.

The NY Times reports on how Dean’s campaign’s coziness with the press has gone out the window:

…during a series of conversations with ABC News last weekend, Dr. Dean's advisers threatened to take away the network's seat on the campaign plane if ABC went forward with plans to report that a Vermont state trooper who Dr. Dean once called "a wonderful parent" turned out to be a wife abuser.

Missing the Party

Senator Joe Lieberman is trying to spin the fact that the tight race in Iowa means he is still in the race. The Associated Press reports on the spinning:

“The bottom line is this is an open, Democratic contest, totally undecided,” the Connecticut senator said during a stop at the Friendly Toast restaurant. “The news to me from Iowa is that every vote counts because it is a tight race.”

The only way he is still in the race is if he finishes in the top three in New Hampshire. It is unlikely that he will do that if the gang of four roll into New Hampshire in a tight, no holds barred brawl from Iowa. Wesley Clark will have a hard enough time getting into the fight himself, let alone Lieberman. Odds are, unless Lieberman can pull every independent in new Hampshire to vote for him, he will not succeed. It looks like Lieberman has missed the party, and its over before he began.

Hunkering down

There’s an old Southern saying about hunkering down when you are being attacked. It seems that term may be appropriate for the Wesley Clark campaign. They are about to receive the onslaught of everyone flooding into New Hampshire. The U.S. News & World Report suggests that Clark’s lobbying efforts will undoubtedly be one of the areas of attack on Clark:

With the Iowa caucus fast approaching Monday, advisers to Wes Clark – who is not in the Iowa vote–are bracing for an attack campaign next week aimed at stopping the retired Army general’s surge in the New Hampshire primary set for January 27. One expected assault: that Clark, after leaving the military, lobbied for an Arkansas firm that mines data and personal information of consumers.

Clark pushing openness

Wesley Clark has been pushing for openness and has released his income records. The Washington Post covers the story:

Clark said he would establish an "openness doctrine" that would restrict the assertion of executive privilege, eliminate secret task forces, disclose all meetings with special interests, require lobbyists to reveal more, and use the Internet to make government transparent.

To arms

The NY Times offers coverage on the differences between the Democrat candidates on national security issues:

In a campaign where national security issues have loomed large in every debate and pancake breakfast here and in Iowa, the major Democratic candidates agree on only a handful of points: that President Bush failed to prepare for the reconstruction of Iraq, that they would rapidly replace American troops with some kind of international force, and that the White House has needlessly alienated much of the rest of the world.

By the way, speaking fees and serving as a military analyst for CNN provided Clark more than $1 million in income in 2002. He received $25,000 to $30,000 per appearance in speaking fees. As a military analyst, commenting mostly on the conflict with Iraq, he earned between $10,000 and $38,000 a month from CNN.

Clark responds

The Manchester Union Leader had twenty tough questions most Republican conservatives would like to ask Democrats. Wesley Clark responded to the questions and they are on the Union Leader’s website. Clark’s answers were not really answers – they’re more like sidesteps:

19. In every other nation in which health care is paid for by the national government, that care is rationed and citizens must wait months, even years, for treatment. How would you avoid this outcome in the United States?

CLARK: We must reform the health care system in the United States. My plan is the only plan that improves care while expanding coverage and makes it more affordable for American families. I will provide health insurance for 31.8 million Americans who are currently uninsured, including all 13.1 million children and college-age Americans who are uninsured. My plan also gives tax credits to reduce premiums for millions of Americans who currently have health insurance but are struggling to pay their premiums. My emphasis on improving quality and constraining cost growth would provide better medical outcomes at a lower cost for all Americans.

Do families matter?

The LA Times takes a look at how the make up of families of candidates for President have changed:

Looking at this season's crop of Democratic presidential aspirants, one would be hard-pressed to argue the point. Before Carol Moseley Braun quit the race Thursday, the nine contenders accounted for five divorces (Kucinich's two and one each for Braun, John F. Kerry and Joe Lieberman). Also, there were two unpartnered candidates (Kucinich, Braun), two with stepchildren (Kerry, Lieberman) and one with an openly gay daughter (Dick Gephardt). Fertility treatments allowed John Edwards' wife to have a baby after 50. Howard Dean and his wife, Judith Steinberg, practice different religions — Steinberg is Jewish; Dean views himself as a Congregationalist. Steinberg intends to continue practicing medicine even if her husband becomes president. And she and Al Sharpton's wife, Kathy Jordan, did not take their husbands' last names. Only one family seems to fit an ultra-traditional mold — Wesley K. Clark's.

Money, money, money

Who is contributing to Democrat political campaigns is the subject of a Washington Post story…  Who are these ""Bohemian Mix," "Young Digeratei," the "Up and Comers" and "Movers and Shakers."

Spending reaches $90 a person

The Democratic presidential campaigns are spending about $90 per expected caucus-goer on broadcast television advertising, according to a Wisconsin-based organization that tracks political advertising. Nearly $9 million has been spent on television ads in Iowa, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project. The caucuses are expected to attract 100,000 people on Monday night.

The advertising project says $8.7 million had been spent on television ads in Iowa through Jan. 9, with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean leading the pack at $2.6 million. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., was second in spending at $2.1 million and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo., was third at $1.9 million. The Cedar Rapids media market has been the recipient of the greatest number of ads with more than 1,100 ads aired there between Jan. 1 and Jan. 9, for an average of 125 per day.

* ON THE BUSH BEAT:

Tax Cuts work

President Bush in his weekly radio address stated that tax cuts work:

"Tax relief has helped turn our economy around," Bush said. "Our economy grew at its fastest pace in two decades in the third quarter of 2003. Manufacturers are seeing a rebound in new orders in factory activity. More than a quarter-million new jobs have been created since August."

Pickering in

In what many felt was a move to shore up his conservative base, President Bush used a recess appointment of Charles Pickering to the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals. The 5th Circuit handles appeals from Mississippi, Texas and Louisiana, and the judges on that circuit have been trailblazers on desegregation and voting rights in the past.

Healthcare

The New York Times reports Bush "is expected to propose a healthcare initiative in his State of the Union address to help the uninsured and the underinsured, White House advisers said on Friday. It was unclear how much the initiative... would cost at a time when Mr. Bush is under pressure because of a growing budget deficit. But White House officials have made clear that they do not want to cede the politically potent issue of health care to the Democratic presidential candidates, all of whom have made health care a centerpiece of their campaigns."

* NATIONAL:

They love Al Gore

MoveOn.org is still in love with Al Gore according to the latest email:

Former Vice President Al Gore has just given a major speech on the environment and global warming, before a packed house of MoveOn members in New York. The speech was deeply moving, sometimes humorous, and ultimately scathing in its critique of the Bush administration's assault on our environment.

"While President Bush likes to project an image of strength and courage, the truth is that in the presence of his large financial contributors he is a moral coward - so weak that he seldom if ever says 'No' to them on anything - no matter what the public interest might mandate," said Mr. Gore.

He called President Bush's inaction in the face of global warming "reckless in the extreme." While Mr. Gore focused on the environment today, he also said:

"In almost every policy area, the Administration's consistent goal has been to eliminate any constraints on their exercise of raw power, whether by law, regulation, alliance or treaty - and in the process they have in each case caused America to be seen by the other nations of the world as showing disdain for the international community."

 

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