The big losers in the Iowa
Caucuses were the nation’s unions. The biggest
losers were the industrial unions who had endorsed
Rep. Dick Gephardt -- of the 21 unions who had
endorsed Gephardt, they represented some 96,000
members in Iowa. Gephardt came in at a mere 11
percent of the delegates out of over 120,000
Iowans who attended the Caucuses. The old
industrial unions are no more. They cannot deliver
even 10 percent of their members to their
candidate of choice.
Gephardt may have been too
much of the past and caucus attendees’ fears of
not sparking enough enthusiasm for his campaign
probably hurt. However, no other candidate
delivered on the industrial unions’ issues and
unions were greatly indebted to Gephardt for his
long years of service. They did not deliver on
their debt or for their own sake.
The defeat is all the worse
because national union presidents were in Iowa for
days before the caucuses working to create, in
their words, “the most awesome organizational
effort Iowa has ever seen.”
The big news from Gephardt’s
camp now will be who he endorses. It will be
interesting to see if he consults with his union
friends before he throws his weight behind a
candidate. Watch Edwards because of Gephardt’s
parting Iowa compliments towards him.
The other interesting thing
to watch is where Gephardt’s super delegates go.
He had the second most delegates. Look for Iowa
Sen. Tom Harkin, Al Gore, and Bill Bradley to
begin working the phones to those delegates to
stop the erosion. Remember -- Dean still has the
most delegates for now.
The service unions faired
only slightly better in their pick of Dean. AFSME
and CEIU provided the professional basis for many
of Dean’s volunteers in Iowa. Dean’s 18 percent
showing was well behind the two front runners. It
is an embarrassing finish for Dean and the unions
who backed him. Sen. John Kerry at 38 percent more
than doubled Dean’s showing and the second place
finisher Sen. John Edwards at 32 percent almost
doubled Dean as well.
There is no doubt that Dean
is not done yet. However, there are grave doubts
this morning as to whether Dean will be
successful. Before Iowa, Dean appeared on an
unstoppable track to the nomination. Now, the pile
of money sitting in his account is the only thing
keeping him from the fate that has befallen
Gephardt.
Dean has received more than a
body blow. He has been knocked to the mat. In
picking himself up last night, his speech to the
faithful was part raging bull, part fiery
preacher. It was not a sight that inspired
confidence or did anything to assuage American’s
fears that he is too angry.
Dean’s blog was a buzz last
night. It did not appear that the campaign true
believers have come to the realization that the
difference between a minority position and a
majority position takes more than evangelizing --
it takes the forging of uneasy alliances with
those who find it prudent to achieve the same
goal.
Dean will have to remake his
campaign in order to be successful. However, the
remaking of his campaign may destroy the very
nature of his insurgency and therefore, destroy
his campaign.
Kerry and Edwards didn’t get
a tail wind out of Iowa. Instead, they are riding
rockets into New Hampshire. The question will be
whether they can control the direction of their
campaign boost in order to get the most good from
their Iowa boost.
Kerry acknowledged that he
has come back from the abyss in his victory speech
last night: “Not so long ago, this campaign was
written off… You stood with me," Kerry told
supporters, "so that we can take on George Bush
and the special interests and literally give
America back its future and its soul."
Wesley Clark was quick to
challenge Kerry and fired the first shot before
Kerry arrived in New Hampshire. "He's got military
background, but nobody in this race has got the
kind of background I've got," said Clark.
Edwards’ campaign is
energized and for the first time is being taken
seriously. Upon landing in New Hampshire last
night Edwards was greeted by a jubilant crowd.
"Can you feel it? The people of New Hampshire are
going to feel it a week from tonight. We're going
to sweep across the country and we're going to do
it without the negative politics of cynicism,"
said Edwards.
The
Associated Press offers this analysis:
Ultimately, however, Iowans backed a candidate who
voted in favor of Bush's decision to go to war —
but criticizes the president's prosecution of it —
and who wants to eliminate the Bush tax cuts going
to the richest Americans, but keep the rest of the
tax-cut package.
The other key factor that
spurred Kerry and Edwards ahead was the belief
that they have a good chance of beating President
Bush. The poll numbers of those who thought Dean
could beat Bush were much lower than those who
thought Kerry or Edwards could.
Look for Edwards to emphasize
that the South is his backyard and that no
Democrat has won the White House without winning
five Southern states. This, of course, puts him in
a big showdown with Wesley Clark in South Carolina
on Feb. 3.
The balance of time,
organization and message between the Jan. 27th New
Hampshire race and the Feb. 3rd round of states
will be especially critical to these three. Dean’s
money and radical movement can keep him in the
race, but of these three the only thing that will
suffice is that they are the Dean alternative.
That cannot be all three of them. In the end,
there can be only one.
The nomination process will
turn to the real focus of ‘who gets knocked off
next?’ It is a foregone conclusion that Sen. Joe
Lieberman’s campaign is the walking dead. The
fight will be between Kerry, Edwards and Clark.
Clark will, by the very nature of Kerry and
Edwards’ support, have to fight a two-front
campaign. Clark has the advantage of timing -- New
Hampshire is Jan. 27 and South Carolina is Feb. 3.
This will enable him to hold off on South Carolina
until after New Hampshire, where Kerry has the
regional advantage. But timing will also enable
Edwards to concentrate on South Carolina -- his
must win state -- more heavily. It is a deadly
triangle that will witness the eventual demise of
one of the three.
Look for Clark’s black ops
communication director Chris Lehane to begin to
put out dirt on Kerry and Edwards around Thursday
and Friday of this week. The purpose is to put
some drag on their Iowa boost… even more than the
President’s State of the Union Message tonight.
Nothing like putting a campaign on the defensive…
Speaking of the State of the
Union, look for the Democrat candidates to remind
the American public what President Bush said in
last year’s State of the Union: that Iraq of
possessed all manner of dangerous weapons, which
are yet to be found. Bush also suggested a Saddam
link to al Qaeda, which has since been disavowed.
There will be even more Democratic appeals for an
independent commission to investigate the
development and use of intelligence related to
Iraq. There are also some who hope that it would
lead to impeachment proceedings.
Speaking of defensive,
Clark’s many missteps and contradictions are bound
to come out much more during the run-up to the New
Hampshire Primary.
As Bob Dole said, “Politics
isn’t bean-bag.”
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