The Iowa Daily Report -- Monday, January 26, 2004

* QUOTABLE:

"There is no question that the race has tightened up," pollster John Zogby said. "Dean stopped the bleeding in the middle of the week and he has slowly regained some of the support he had lost."

"'He's such a good man,' she said softly. 'I don't know why he didn't catch on," said Joe Lieberman’s mother, Marcia Lieberman.

"Boy, that speech in Iowa was something else. Talk about shock and awe. Saddam Hussein felt so bad for Governor Dean that he offered him his hole," President Bush is reported to have joked at the Alfalfa Club gala.

“The Democratic nominee will be formidable,” former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said. “We’re going to have to fight for every state.”

"It's close and it's closing fast," Howard Dean said, accusing his rivals of smearing him in a shadowy phone-and-mail campaign. "I need your help because we have every intention of winning the New Hampshire primary."

"Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."

"After I get done, Hillary will be president," Howard Dean said referring to his being elected two-terms.

"In terms of the dirty tricks, I think we are seeing some of those in the primaries. You get used to it," Howard Dean said. "It's not nice, it's not good for the democracy, but people do them."

* TODAY’S OFFERINGS:

* IPW’s New Hampshire Analysis

* Michigan Labor needs a home

* Dean regarding phone calls

* Clark on deficits

* Edwards going for Tennessee

* Edwards negative?

* Kucinich and WMD

* Poll watching

* CANDIDATES & CAUCUSES:

NH Primary Analysis
by Roger Wm. Hughes

Tomorrow’s results will once again knock candidates out of the race. At this point unless Clark improves his standing he will begin to bleed the resources needed to win the nomination. The big story is not the winners – it’s the losers who cannot continue.

Joe Lieberman

A fairly certain result of tomorrow’s results will be the realization that Sen. Joe Lieberman’s race for the Presidency is done. Lieberman, the independent-minded Democrat, has not inspired his party to follow Clinton’s past policies. They seem more interested in going back to the Humphrey, Mondale, McGovern policies -- the policies that the Democrat Leadership Conference was created to overthrow… an organization chaired by Bill Clinton.

The LA Times has a Lieberman story that is headlined, “Even His Mother Wonders Why He Didn’t Catch On.”

Over a two-eggs-over-easy breakfast Sunday at a Manchester diner, car parts manager Frank Fleming offered Lieberman friendly advice.

"The guy should change parties," he said as the candidate shook hands nearby. "He appeals to middle-class people with solid values — including Republicans tired of George Bush. But the Democrats don't see his value. So I say ditch them and switch over to a party that would appreciate him."

Lieberman’s website has the following as the lead when you visit:

Since Joe’s amazing debate performance on Thursday night, his support in New Hampshire has been surging. Buoyed by newspaper endorsements, terrific television ads that your contributions keep on the air, and Joe’s own stamina and optimism, New Hampshire is becoming Lieberman Country just when it matters most: on the eve of the Primary! Just look at what’s happening on the ground. Voters are flocking to see Joe, right before they make up their minds about their vote…

Wesley Clark

There has to be serious reappraisal going on over at the Wesley Clark campaign. Clark had New Hampshire to himself for several weeks. He has not caught fire. He is in danger of losing to the other Southern candidate, Sen. John Edward's in New Hampshire before he gets to Ssouth Carolina. Clark’s strength is his military service, and he hangs around with extreme liberal Roger Moore who calls the President a deserter. Clark doesn’t denounce the charge. Madonna sends out emails in support of Clark Who is in charge of image over there?

Clark is also caught in an interview telling about how he targeted civilians in the War in Kosovo:

I want to answer this fellow. Because the truth was that that -- first of all, we gave warnings to Milosevic that that was going to be struck. I personally called the CNN reporter and had it set up so that it would be leaked, and Milosevic knew. He had the warning because after he got the warning, he actually ordered the western journalists to report there as a way of showing us his power, and we had done it deliberately to sort of get him accustomed to the fact that he better start evacuating it. There were actually six people who were killed, as I recall.

John Kerry

Kerry is the one who hit the home run on Sunday with the talking heads, including being on “60 Minutes”. He may now find himself in a tightening race. However, this is the guy who risked it all on Iowa and has found a new life for his campaign. He is in the hunt for the Presidency once again.

Speaking of “60 minutes” Kerry mentioned how he was intimidated by his wife’s wealth – a story also carried in the Boston Herald:

Kerry, meanwhile, admitted in the largely glowing ``60 Minutes'' profile that he was intimidated by the ketchup heiress' millions when they started dating.

``At first, I was a little bit, actually, sort of intimidated by that. I think it's one of the reasons I was cautious,'' Kerry said. ``But then, you know, emotions and feelings take precedence, and you take what comes with it. I'm not worried about it.'' Heinz Kerry then interjected, ``I came with it.''

Of course the big questions is whether Kerry really meant what he said about the South.

"Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own," said Kerry.

If you are wondering what Kerry will be hit on concerning his record you might think about:

* "his opposition to mandatory minimum sentences for dealers who sell drugs to children"

* "voting against the death penalty for terrorists"

* "efforts to provide cash benefits to drug addicts and alcoholics"

* "onetime opposition to a modest work requirement for welfare recipients"

* "supporting more than half a trillion dollars in tax increases--including hikes in gas taxes and Social Security taxes"

* "accepting free housing and other goodies for himself from friendly influence-peddlers"

* serving as Lt. Governor under Dukakis when Massachusetts "famously furloughed more than 500 murders and sex offenders under a program Kerry later defended as tough"

Howard Dean

Talk about your nine lives, this Howard Dean is tapped into the mother-load of American political activism. Judy, Judy, Judy, you are the savior of the campaign. Since his wife has shown the softer side of Dean, he has been regaining the core of the anti-war voters once again. We will see tomorrow how that impacts actual voters.

After all, you have to question the judgment of a Democrat candidate who voted to go to war. Isn’t that right Kerry?

Dean message is that he is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and the one candidate willing to take tough stands. The message is specially coined for New Hampshire independent. It is part of a political makeover designed to get him past the ‘I have a Scream’ speech.

Of course Dean offered this message also:

"You can say that it's great that Saddam is gone and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone," said the former Vermont governor, an unflinching critic of the war against Iraq. "But a lot of them gave their lives. And their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before."

John Edwards

Sen. John Edwards… if he had money he’d be the guy to beat. He keeps coming from the back of the pack to be in the money position. I wonder if he would take the V.P. spot if Howard Dean offered it?

Then again, maybe Edwards is still in the hunt for the number one spot. New Hampshire Politics.com reports on an Edwards rally where a  woman was trying to decide between Kerry and Edwards:

"I think we need someone who can go in there and jump-start America again, get people excited" said Beth Bellevue, a former Gephardt supporter who is now trying to decide between Edwards and Kerry, but is attracted to Edwards due to his health care and anti-poverty platforms, as well as his promise to bring the United Nations into Iraq.

Tomorrow’s NH vote

Tomorrow is important for who loses, not who wins. Then we are off to see who can compete in multiple states in a short amount of time. Who’s got the money and organization to play in the big leagues? We will see on Feb. 3. South Carolina is important for Edwards and Clark but watch Missouri and Arizona for who is going to win the race.

It is all about the delegates. This could be a long fight and require some horse trading to win. It is all about the delegates. Who will be in the race -- will California and NY decide it? Or will it be over before then? Maybe not.

Michigan Labor needs a home

Sen. John Kerry offers this story from the Detroit press on his website:

Less than two weeks before the Feb. 7 Democratic presidential primary, Big Labor is split on which of the remaining candidates to back with its substantial money and foot soldiers.

Last week’s Iowa caucus purged the field of labor champion Dick Gephardt, a Missouri congressman who quit after he limped to a fourth-place finish despite his heavy blue-collar union support, including the Teamsters.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who had the support of public-employee unions, came in third in Iowa, after leading the polls for months. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards finished first and second, respectively.

So where does labor go now?

“We’re going to regroup,” said Mark Gaffney, president of the 700,000-member Michigan AFL-CIO. “The unions are going to, on their own, decide who to back. And I’m afraid the labor movement is going to split up.”

Some voters, like Darrell Stewart of Detroit, have not decided who would make the best president.

“Nobody really stands out,” said Stewart, a Detroit bus driver and longtime member of the Amalgamated Transit Union. “If Hillary Clinton were running, I’d vote for her, but I need to see more from the other Democratic candidates before I make a decision.”

Gaffney lamented the loss of Gephardt from the field.

“Gephardt would have made a great president. He’s best on the issues. He just didn’t turn people on,” he said.

Gaffney personally backs Edwards. But Lu Battaglieri, president of the politically potent Michigan Education Association, personally backs Kerry, who is supported by firefighters and utility workers. Neither of their state unions, however, officially has endorsed a candidate.

The United Auto Workers, the biggest affiliate in the Michigan AFL-CIO and the most powerful force in the Michigan Democratic Party, remains neutral.

Gaffney does not expect the UAW and the Teamsters to endorse before Michigan’s Feb. 7 vote.

“It’s a reflection of the field,” Gaffney said. “The field is varied ... but there’s not that one candidate yet. Folks all have that sort of different opinion on who is the best.”

Still, LeRoy Carter is standing firm behind his support for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, an early front-runner who came in third in the Iowa caucus. Carter admires Dean’s tenacity.

“He’s a Democrat. I think there are too many closet Republicans calling themselves Democrats,” said Carter, 50, of Ann Arbor, a staff representative for Michigan AFSCME Council 25.

In the first significant Michigan fallout from his upset victory in Iowa, Kerry won the endorsement of two AFL-CIO affiliates.

They are the Grand Rapids-based Local 951 of the United Food and Commercial Workers, whose 34,000 members consist primarily of workers at 80 Meijer stores, and the 20,000-member Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union Michigan Council.

Local 951 President Robert Potter pledged “vigorous” efforts on Kerry’s behalf, as well as financial support.

Kerry claims “swelling support” in Michigan. His backers include ex-Gov.James J. Blanchard, Dan Mulhern, Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s husband, and co-chair, with Blanchard, of Kerry’s Michigan campaign.

Granholm said she may endorse a candidate between Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s primary and the Michigan caucus.

Also weighing options are Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick and Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow. Ex-U.S. Sen. Don Riegle of Michigan endorsed Kerry Friday.

With some of his federation’s affiliates neutral or embracing Kerry or Dean, why does Gaffney support Edwards?

“I tell people, ‘If you love Dick Gephardt, you’re going to at least like John Edwards.’ Similar background. Middle class. Father was a mill worker. Mother had to make ends meet for the family. And by the way, his dad’s mill closed down. So John Edwards understands what I think is the biggest issue in this country: job loss.”

Dean regarding phone calls

Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:

"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:

* phone calls early in the morning and late at night:

* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate
people;

* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign but do not;

* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.

Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.

We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.

We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."

Clark on deficits

Today the Congressional Budget Office released a report predicting a record $477 billion deficit for Fiscal Year 2004. Wesley Clark issued the following statement:

"In just three short years President Bush's reckless tax cuts for the wealthy have turned record surpluses into record deficits. I will bring a higher standard of leadership to Washington that puts deficit reduction at the center of my economic agenda to create jobs and restore prosperity."

Clark has proposed a Savings for America's Future plan that would save $2.35 trillion over ten years for deficit reduction and investments in key priorities like health care and education. Clark's plan would repeal the Bush tax cuts for families making over $200,000 annually, cut corporate welfare and close corporate loopholes, streamline government and eliminate duplicative programs, and save money through a success strategy for Iraq.

Edwards going for Tennessee

Senator John Edwards announced Monday he has increased his staff in Tennessee to compete in the state's February 10 primary. The campaign now has representatives in Memphis, Jackson, Nashville, Chattanooga, Knoxville and Northeast Tennessee. Oliver Gottfried, is joining the staff as state field director. In addition, joining Edwards' Tennessee staff are:

·        Jill Allen, Memphis

·        Brian Brokaw, Middle Tennessee

·        David Cooling, Knoxville

·        Mike Edwards, West Tennessee

·        Jason Hirsch, Chattanooga

·        Matt McGrath, Memphis

·        Jonathan Pahl, Middle Tennessee

·        Lee Porterfield, Northeast Tennessee

·        Ryan Ramsey, Middle Tennessee

"I am running a nationwide campaign and am making Tennessee a top priority," Edwards said. "I have met with voters across Tennessee, I have listened to their concerns and believe that together we can change America."

The new staffers join State Director John Winston, Political Director Kim Sasser, and Outreach Director Jerry Maynard.

Edwards negative?

It seems the Sen. John Edwards isn’t always Mr. Nice. ABC News reports Edwards knew more than he has said about the negative efforts in the Iowa Caucuses:

ABCNEWS has obtained an official "John Edwards for President" precinct captain packet that includes myriad personal attacks for Edwards caucus-goers to make against his Democratic opponents, perhaps belying this claim.

The document — marked "CONFIDENTIAL AND PRIVILEDGED" (sic) and "NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION" and signed by the senator — encourages Edwards supporters to tell undecided caucus-attendees that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is a "Park Avenue elitist from New York City" and say Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts has "the stale record of a Washington insider" and "has been a part of the failed Washington politics for too long."

Kucinich and WMD

Democratic Presidential Candidate Dennis Kucinich today said that based on the public record five of his fellow candidates promoted the idea Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction:

"The implications of this are enormous," Kucinich said. "They were either misled or looked the other way while President Bush was using the alleged presence of weapons of mass destruction as a reason to go to war against Iraq. Either way, these candidates have seriously undermined their ability to win in the general election when President Bush is obviously running for reelection based on his Iraq policies.

"Yesterday the leader of the U.S. search for Iraq's alleged stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons said he didn't think there were any. Secretary of State Colin Powell now claims we went to war to find out whether such weapons existed.

"Senators Kerry, Lieberman and Edwards, Dr. Dean, and General Clark, all claimed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and, therefore, contributed to the political climate which falsely justified a war.

"In September of 2002, before five of my fellow candidates joined the President in claiming that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, I repeatedly and insistently made the point that no proof of that claim existed and as such that there was no basis to go to war. Six months later, even Dr. Dean was still claiming that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction."

Poll watching

Sen. John Kerry leads Howard Dean 31 percent to 28 percent In New Hampshire in the newest poll. Sen. John Edwards jumped three points to narrowly trail Wesley Clark for third place, 13 percent to 12 percent. Sen. Joe Lieberman remains static at 9 percent.

* ON THE BUSH BEAT:

New Hampshire visit

Sen. John McCain is in New Hampshire for a Merrimack Diner at 3:30 pm, a tour of Radio Row at the Center of New Hampshire Holiday Inn at 4:35 pm, and a 5:10 pm trip on the Bush campaign bus to a 6:15 pm rally in Nashua with Bush-Cheney campaign chairman Marc Racicot. McCain beat Bush in New Hampshire four years ago. Now, Bush asked McCain to help out.

No Kentucky visit

Roll Call reports President Bush will not visit Kentucky's 6th Congressional District on behalf of the GOP candidate in the February 17 special election. The race is expected to be tight, with Democrats having a slight edge. "Democrats believe that Bush's decision signals a fear among his campaign operatives that if [GOP candidate Alice Forgy] Kerr loses the race it could reflect poorly on him as he begins to rev up his re-election campaign. One senior Kentucky Republican said that Bush's decision had nothing to do with the potentially negative association if Kerr lost but rather was based on an inability by the Kerr campaign to pay the entire bill for the various overhead costs of a presidential visit."

* THE CLINTON COMEDIES:

Bill the tech whiz

The archives of the Bill Clinton presidential library will contain 39,999,998 e-mails by the former president's staff and two by the man himself.

"The only two he sent," Skip Rutherford, president of the Clinton Presidential Foundation, which is raising money for the library, said.

One of them may not actually qualify for electronic communication because it was a test to see if the commander in chief knew how to push the button on an e-mail.

 

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