IPW
Daily Report, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2004
“I love New Hampshire!
And I love Iowa, too!”
John Kerry said.
"Now this campaign goes
on to places all over this country, and I ask
Democrats everywhere to join us so that we can
defeat George W. Bush and the economy of
privilege," John
Kerry said.
I have spent my whole
life fighting against powerful interests — and
I've only just begun to fight,"
John Kerry said
"People know that we're
going to stand up for them. This really is a
campaign to stand up for ordinary Americans,"
Howard Dean
said. "We got some momentum back in the
campaign, but it's going to take a long time to
get back the momentum we had as front-runner
status."
"We'll see if John Kerry
can take the number of body blows that Howard Dean
did and still be standing,"
Dean spokeswoman
Tricia Enright said.
"I think the only way
we're going to beat George Bush is for someone to
come from outside Washington,"
Dean said.
"We really are going to
win this nomination, aren't we?"
Dean said.
"The people of New Hampshire have allowed our
campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very
grateful. The people of New Hampshire have allowed
all of you to hope again that we're going to have
real change in America."
"We'll be leaving New
Hampshire tonight a smarter, better, stronger and
even more determined candidate,"
Wesley Clark
said. "Never underestimate what a
determined soldier can accomplish when he's
fighting for his country."
“The quicker we can get
this party unified with one message, to have our
messenger out there every day, allow myself and
the party to raise the money, coalesce around a
candidate, the better off we are,"
Terry McAuliffe,
chairman of the Democratic National Committee,e
said.
"At some point ... you
just run out of money and you can't get your
campaign plane in the air, you can't pay for your
advertising, you can't pay for your staff,"
said Terry
McAuliffe.
"It's good for the
Democratic Party that the South matters early in
the process,"
Mr. Erwin said. "Too often the entire South
has been late to the dance,"
said Joe Erwin,
the state Democratic Party chairman in South
Carolina.
Kerry ran best among
voters who put the highest priority on leadership
and political experience. Dean defeated Kerry
among voters who placed the highest priority on a
candidate who would offer new ideas and bring
about the greatest change.
-- writes Ronald
Brownstein of the LA Times.
The last two Democrats to
sweep Iowa and New Hampshire in contested races
were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000 --
and both went on to win the nomination.
-- writes David
S. Broder of the Washington Post.
Retired Gen. Wesley
Clark's prospects went south after his disastrous
debate performance last Thursday, and he looks
like a loser after finishing near the middle here.
-- writes Robert
Novak.
The chair has lost
control of the floor and delegates are snaking
through the aisles, shouting, "We Want Hillary!"
All deals are off; we have the politicians'
nightmare and the pundits' dream — an open
convention! --
writes NY Times columnist William Safire.
IPW Analysis:
*Money and organization
*Kerry &
Dean in the Battle of the States
*Lieberman – is it over?
*Clark still standing
*Edwards says no VP
*Kerry – what now?
Just Politics:
*Kay and WMDs
*Hey, Bill!
*Republican suspended
*MoveOn.org protest
*Bad form, ol’ boy
IPW Analysis
Money and organization
It is all about money and
organization now. Candidates will hardly be able
to get to states holding elections and caucuses
more than twice. The question is, who can play in
all of the states? And it looks like the answer
is, Howard Dean will. How many states and how much
money Sen. John Kerry can pony up will be a big
challenge.
Spending the money can be a
problem.
For example if you wanted to put
together three new TV ads -- one each for the
Midwest, South, and another for the Southwest --
it would require going to these states with the
candidate, putting together the taping crew,
editing the tapes, copying, shipping to the
stations, paying in advance and signing the forms.
It is about money and organization.
The following states are up next
Tuesday:
Feb. 3,
2004: Delaware presidential primary
Feb. 3,
2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential
primary
Feb. 3,
2004: Missouri presidential primary
Feb. 3,
2004: Arizona presidential primary
Feb. 3,
2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses
Feb. 3,
2004: Virginia GOP caucuses
Feb. 3,
2004: Oklahoma presidential primary
Feb. 3,
2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses
There was discussion in the Dean
camp about not fighting the war on all fronts.
Advisers urged Dean to concentrate on a few states
to conserve resources. But he vetoed the strategy,
insisting his campaign is muscular enough to
compete nationally according to the
Associated Press:
In an interview with the
Associated Press, Dean acknowledged that aides
urged him to skip South Carolina. "There was some
discussion about it," he said. "I never gave it
any thought."
Dean raised more than $200,000
in the 24 hours before the primary, but has been
spending money just as fast — and he will keep up
the pricey pace with his new strategy.
Kerry & Dean in the Battle of the States
Kerry is going to Missouri first
and John Norris, who ran Iowa next door, is
heading there on Kerry’s behalf as well. Kerry has
also picked up good Gephardt people in Missouri.
He needs to win Missouri to keep his string going
and delegate-rich Missouri is a prize worth
winning.
Dean will fall back on his union
support from AFSME and SEUI in Missouri. There
were hard feelings between Gephardt staff and
those unions before. Missouri will be a very
interesting battleground on Feb. 3. Aides to Mr.
Gephardt said on Monday that he would not endorse
anyone before the contest there.
Kerry will receive the benefit
of being the double winner and money should come
in. He will also receive more press attention than
the other candidates in the upcoming states
because of his wins.
A state to watch is Oklahoma,
where Rep. Dick Gephardt had run up a large number
of endorsements from union members and party
faithful. If these previous Gephardt supporters
start going in mass to Kerry in Oklahoma, Dean
will have a hard time putting up the firewall.
Dean, it seems, is interested in
visiting Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin. He
may be at $5 million in the bank at this point.
Will those Deanies throw their plastic credit
cards at the cyber-bat and keep Dean alive? How
long will it take for the Deanies to pay off this
credit card financed campaign? Will they provide
the increasing millions of dollars to rollover the
Democrat establishment and win the nomination? How
bloody will this get? Will Dean get a million
contributors at $100 each?
It could get very bloody,
according to the
Washington Post:
But House Minority Leader Nancy
Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it will probably be another
month before the nomination is certain. "Kerry has
been impressive," she said, "but we have to see
how this plays out in the rest of the country."
The
LA Times reports:
Dean's failure to win the
primary is ominous for his presidential hopes. New
Hampshire has among the country's greatest
concentrations of highly educated, socially
liberal voters, the group that had been most
attracted to his candidacy.
More than 60 % of Tuesday's
voters held at least a four-year college degree;
the share of college graduates casting ballots in
South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma — some of
the key contests next Tuesday — is likely to be
much smaller.
Dean did best only among voters
who described themselves as "very liberal," while
Kerry carried moderates, liberals and
conservatives.
Lieberman – is it over?
Sen. Joe Lieberman’s campaign
ended yesterday. The candidate was informed of the
death by his staff, but he doesn’t seem to want to
take in the reality just yet.
There’s more and more talk that
Lieberman is the ‘very lonely Democrat’ that
Wesley Clark claimed to be in the Republican
Party. Lieberman’s, “there was too a middle class
tax cut” positions seem more favorable to the
Republicans all the time. Maybe, he should join
his friend John McCain on the other side of the
aisle.
"I'm not sure he'll be able to
raise 10 cents after this poor, fifth-place
showing," said Charles Cook, an independent
Washington elections analyst. "One more good week
and this nomination will belong to Kerry."
Clark still standing
Wesley Clark lives to fight
another day. It looks like he will come in just
ahead of Edwards by over 800 votes in New
Hampshire. He took off for - I bet you thought S.
Carolina – no, Oklahoma and Arizona. Edwards
started his “Bringing it Home” South Carolina tour
at South Carolina State University in Orangeburg,
S.C. this morning. Clark is vulnerable if he
doesn’t get close to Edwards in South Carolina. He
better do well in Virginia, too. Clark says that
he is going to run a better campaign.
"Four months ago, we weren't
even in this race. We had no money. We had no
office. All we had was hope and a vision for a
better America," Clark said. "We came into New
Hampshire as one of the Elite Eight. We leave
tonight as one of the Final Four.”
Clark is putting up a fight in
South Carolina Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and
North Dakota. What about Virginia? And how you
have Southern appeal, General?
Edwards says no VP
Clark is not the only one who
knows how to reject a suitor’s offer of second
place. Edwards was asked on NBC’s Today Show about
taking the number two spot behind Kerry. His reply
was, "No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice
president. I'm running for president."
"We've got a lot of energy and
momentum going right now. My job is to keep it
going," Edwards said.
How big can he win in South
Carolina will be the question. Can he come out
ahead in Virginia and third in another state?
Watch Edwards in Oklahoma. That would be about all
his money allows, and keep him alive for another
round. South Carolina will probably take out Clark
unless he wins a state. Then it is only one
Southerner standing. Tell us once again how those
Southern states don’t count, Kerry -- how much
money will you spend?
Edwards is running TV ads in
South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Edwards
said contributions continued to flow into his
campaign based on his Iowa finish. Look for these
contributions to slow and financial reliance come
from the South.
Kerry -- what now?
South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn
and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack intend to endorse Kerry,
officials said Wednesday -- a coup for the
Democratic presidential front-runner. Iowa
Governor Tom Vilsack’s wife previously endorsed
Kerry in the Iowa Caucuses. This puts Vilsack at
odds with Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who endorsed Dean.
Harkin is the one who warmed up the crowd prior to
the Dean I have a Scream speech -- the same
thing he did at Senator Paul Wellstone’s funeral.
Gov. Vilsack is traveling to neighboring Missouri
to make the his Kerry endorsement.
An AP analysis of the delegate
count shows Kerry winning 13 delegates and Dean
capturing nine. The others fell under the 15
percent threshold for claiming delegates.
Kerry is competing in all
seven-state contests on Feb. 3 (including tiny
North Dakota), where 269 delegates to the
Democratic convention are at stake. That
represents 12 percent of the delegates needed to
claim the nomination. Kerry's bought television ad
time in all seven states.
Watch for how Kerry deals with
his Congressional record as a front-runner. The
Washington Post reports:
Kerry said he would use his
candidacy to challenge Bush and the "influence
peddlers, the polluters, the HMOs" and other
corporations that he said had special access to
the White House. "We're coming," he said. "You're
going. And don't let the door hit you on the way
out."
Weapons of Mass Destruction
David Kay is testifying and
President Bush continues to be questioned about
WMDs:
When asked Tuesday by reporters
about Kay's assertions, Bush didn't say that the
banned weapons would eventually be discovered: "We
know from years of intelligence — not only our own
intelligence services, but other intelligence
gathering organizations — that he had weapons —
after all, he used them."
Hey, Bill!
The
Washington Times reports:
Democratic presidential
candidate Howard Dean says he would appoint Bill
Clinton to negotiate a peace agreement between the
Palestinians and Israelis.
"If I were president tomorrow,
the first thing I would do is pick up the phone
and call the only person who has had any kind of
success in bringing the Palestinians and the
Israelis together in the last 25 years I'd call
Bill Clinton and ask him to represent me in the
peace process," Mr. Dean told the audience in a
packed auditorium at Phillips Exeter Academy in
New Hampshire, Agence France-Presse reports.
Republican suspended
The
Associated Press reports that a Republican
aide to Sen. Bill Frist has been put on leave:
An aide to Senate Majority
Leader Bill Frist has been put on leave during an
investigation into how Republicans gained access
to Democratic memos concerning opposition to
President Bush's judicial nominees.
Manuel Miranda, who works for
the Tennessee Republican on judicial nominations,
is on leave pending the outcome of the inquiry by
the Senate sergeant-at-arms, Frist spokesman Nick
Smith said yesterday. In the matter under
investigation, Democratic memos stored on a
computer server shared by Judiciary Committee
members ended up in Republican hands.
MoveOn.org protest
MoveOn.org is protesting
Corporate CBS’s refusal to let their Bush bashing
ad on the Super Bowl. They have a problem of
people calling CBS News to complain. It seems they
do not want the bad effects to go there:
Dear friend of MoveOn,
Our CBS campaign continues to
gain momentum: thousands of calls were made to CBS
yesterday, and over 400,000 emails have been
written.
Some of these calls have been
reaching CBS News, which is not our intended
target. CBS News doesn't have any say in the
decision not to run our ad, so we don't want to
interfere with their operation. Please make sure
that you call the switchboard for CBS Corporate,
which you can reach at: (212) 975-4321
Bad form, Ol’ Boy
The Washington Times reports
that the Chief Justice Rehnquist dismissed
Senators asking that Justice Scalia recuse
himself:
Chief Justice William H.
Rehnquist has rejected a request from two
Democratic senators that Justice Antonin Scalia
recuse himself from a case involving Vice
President Dick Cheney.
The reply was released by the
U.S. Supreme Court on Monday.
Justice Scalia went on a hunting
trip with Mr. Cheney only a month after the
Supreme Court agreed to hear a case on whether an
energy task force headed by Mr. Cheney should be
forced to list the names of those it consulted.
Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, Vermont
Democrat and ranking member of the Judiciary
Committee, and Sen. Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Democrat and a presidential contender, sent Chief
Justice Rehnquist a letter suggesting that it
would be improper for Justice Scalia to
participate in the Cheney case.
In letters to both senators,
Chief Justice Rehnquist crisply denied a conflict,
United Press International reports.
"I think that any suggestion by
or Senator Leahy as to why a justice should recuse
himself in a pending case is ill-considered," the
letter said.
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