IPW Daily Report – Monday, March 15, 2004
"That black stuff [oil] is hurting us,"
said John Kerry.
"If John Kerry spent as much time on the job he
was elected to do as he does on the campaign
trail, he might have noticed the recent resources
committee hearing" showing American job losses
because of reliance on foreign energy.
"The American people deserve a president who isn't
a hostage to the radical environmental movement,"
Congresswoman
Barbara Cubin (R) quoted on the House Resource
website.
Red, Blue and Ugly
analysis by
Roger Wm. Hughes
The Washington Post has an excellent article
outlining why the election comes down to 18 states
in terms of both Democrats and Republicans.
[click here for map] It even covers some of
the states that could come into play like
California and what both sides think.
IPW has for months discussed the 18 key states
that will make up the 2004 battleground. To put it
another way, geography and demographics is
strategy and tactics in politics.
The Founding Fathers feared two things. One was a
dictator, but the other was tyranny by the mob
(majority). That is why the Founding Fathers
designed the electoral system for the election of
the President and made sure there was another
institution -- the Senate -- that would balance
against the tyranny of the majority. They also, as
an afterthought, included the Bill of Rights to
help protect the minority.
Little did they understand that they were setting
up a more difficult proposition of the tyranny of
the minority – one that so inhibits today’s
politics that many wonder if policies can be
established in a timely and definitive manner.
However, our democratic republic makes for the
fact that among our many regions (which are more
like nations in themselves), the internal
conflicts of economics and values will be fought
out along the lines of 18 states.
This will in all likelihood be an ugly campaign.
Contrary to recent articles suggesting this will
turn people on to this election, it will
inevitably do the opposite. It is true this
election will make Americans passionate about the
race for the presidency. It will make them
passionate in the same way that the Civil War (or
if you prefer, the War between the States) made
people passionate. However, it also made a lot of
people just sick to their stomachs. So much
carnage and vitriolic passion inevitably turns a
large portion of the population off from the
strident proposals of belief that the combatants
each know are the path to the future. Most people
simply live in doubt.
Another reason this campaign will be so ugly is
because the strategy of it is “head-to-head.” No
other strategy makes any sense. Both sides have
equal resources. Both sides have nearly equal
opportunity to win the well-known battleground
that will provide victory. Both sides know the
opponent’s weaknesses and strengths. Both sides
know that the other side is unlikely to fall for a
trap. Therefore, there is only the option of
attacking on a line that is well known to both
sides.
In the implementation of the strategy of
head-to-head, the eventual winner is most often
the candidate with the greatest character. It was
so with another great head-to-head strategist,
Rocky Marciano. He could take a punch and give a
punch, and for the most part stay on his feet.
So unless you like seeing such an exhibition, this
will not be pretty.
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