More Money
Money is the necessary ingredient to continue to
win delegates. At this point there is some good
news in the Howard Dean camp. It is reported that
fundraising is coming in at around $10,000 per
hour. Not enough to match Kerry or get Dean back
into the Feb. 3 round, but it will set Dean up for
Michigan (Feb.7) and Wisconsin (Feb. 17).
Meanwhile, Kerry has dragged in over $500,000
since New Hampshire’s election. He has raised $1.6
million online since the Iowa Caucuses.
Bad news came in for Sen. John Edwards and Wesley
Clark. They have opted into the public financing
of elections program. The Federal Election
Commission (FEC) is not able to pay 100 percent of
the money owed. So, They will be paying out 43 to
45 cents on the dollar. Rep. Dennis Kucinich had
been expecting $2.4 million in his February check;
Wesley Clark, $1.4 million; Joe Lieberman, about
$389,000; and John Edwards, about $302,000.
Candidates normally borrow against the money owed
by the FEC.
Howard Dean
Howard Dean got some good news and some bad news
in the poll numbers. The good news is that Sen.
John Edwards is now 4 percentage points ahead of
Sen. John Kerry in S. Carolina. The bad news is
that Kerry is solidly in the lead in five of the
other six states and has pulled within 3 percent
of Clark in Oklahoma. Dean needs Clark and Edwards
to slow Kerry’s gathering of delegates. His best
hope is in these words from pollster John Zogby:
"Edwards moved up a couple of points over Kerry in
South Carolina, is running respectably in Oklahoma
and is within striking distance of achieving
delegates in Missouri," Zogby said.
"Clark appears poised for a solid second place
showing in Arizona. If Clark can couple that with
a victory in Oklahoma, he will certainly make this
pollster look twice."
If Kerry continues to build momentum, Dean will
have a very difficult time creating a firewall.
One of the big problems facing Dean is the latest
USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll that has Kerry beating
President Bush 53 percent to 46 percent. In the
same poll Dean loses to Bush 45 percent to 53
percent. The other problem is that the number one
factor for Democrats voting for a candidate is the
question of who can beat Bush. The other
candidates fail to beat Bush in the latest poll.
The CNN poll also showed Edwards beating Bush, 49%
to 48%.
Wesley Clark
Clark needs the second place finish in Arizona and
the win in Oklahoma just to stay in the race.
Edwards has to win S. Carolina to stay in the
race. Money will dry up for both of them if they
do not make a decent showing.
"Our intention and our focus is to go forward,"
said Chris Lehane, a senior campaign strategist
for Clark.
As of Monday the poll numbers showed that Clark
could still be in the race. We will see if the
numbers translate to voters today. One of the
factors for Arizona is the fact that half of the
votes in that state have already been cast prior
to today’s primary. Many of the votes were cast
before the New Hampshire Primary.
Another factor is that Arizona is having bad
weather today and polling places will be hard to
find because they are only using 1/3 of the number
of polling places than usual today.
McAuliffe asks for Unity Pledge
Democrat National Committee Chairman Terry
McAuliffe is asking candidates to sign a unity
pledge he has mailed out, "Another four years of a
George W. Bush presidency would be a disaster for
the nation and the world. I pledge to stand with
the Democratic Party and support the Democratic
nominee for President in 2004. I will do
everything I can to help win back the White House
for America."
What happens after today…
After today’s election results, there will be
candidates who have run out of money and hope and
the pledge will be important.
Also after today’s election we may still see John
Edwards, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark creating
such scenes as envisioned by ABC’s The Note,
“…we can look forward to several weeks of attacks
on special interest ties; comparisons of life
experience; accusations of a do-nothing Senate
record; talk about a French castle, off-shore tax
shelters, the Big Dig, voting rights for felons,
and the death penalty; and Roy Neel blog
postings.”
However, if Kerry moves forward as the inevitable
nominee, The Note suggest that we can look
forward to: “tax cuts for the wealthy; Iraq
credibility; Halliburton; manufacturing job
losses; the Texas National Guard; Maverick Media
finally doing something visible for all that
money; several weeks of attacks on special
interest ties; comparisons of life experience;
accusations of a do-nothing Senate record; talk
about a French castle, off-shore tax shelters, the
Big Dig, voting rights for felons, and the death
penalty; and Chris Heinz and Laura Bush blog
postings.” (2/3/2004)
Who can win in the
South
One of the questions that’s supposed to be
answered today is which Democrat can win votes in
the South. Sen. John Edwards must win South
Carolina -- the state where he was born -- or he
will not be able to claim that title of Southern
vote winner.
Clark was the person who boasted that when the
campaign turned South he would be in the driver’s
seat. But now his best shot is in Oklahoma. If
Edwards loses South Carolina and is out of the
race, Clark will get the chance to prove he is the
candidate that can win in the South in some head
to head race with Kerry. He certainly ski-daddled
out of S. Carolina, as a Southerner would put it.
Clark is also faced with a delegates problem –
with the exception of Florida, there are not a lot
of delegates in the South. And Florida is not
considered a real Southern state anymore… then
again, Southerners seem to question whether Clark
is real Southerner, too.
If Kerry beats Edwards in South Carolina can he
claim the title of Southern vote winner? Well, I
wonder what former Dean campaign manager Joe
Trippi -- who is appearing on Hardball as an
election analyst tonight -- will say about it.
Electability continues to be the driving force for
all candidates and winning in the South is
important only so far as it demonstrates the
ability to win needed electoral votes.
The Wall Street Journal writes, "With the war
issue fading, the party's 2004 competition
increasingly revolves around an issue normally
confined to strategists' back-room discussions:
the candidates' 'electability' in November. The
focus on electability reflects a country more
sharply polarized between Democrats and
Republicans than at any time in a generation. Mr.
Bush has become both a symbol and a cause of that
polarization. And it is increasingly clear that
Democrats' antipathy toward him is driving primary
voters far more than are familiar intraparty
splits pitting the liberal left against the
moderate center, or the old guard against a new
generation."
The
NY Daily News reports if Edwards wins South
Carolina he will be going South:
Edwards' strategists said he would likely bypass
the Michigan and Washington votes on Saturday to
focus on Virginia and Tennessee next Tuesday.
(2/3/2004)
Clark on Bush’s budget
Wesley Clark criticized President Bush's proposed
budget, which projects a $521 billion deficit for
Fiscal Year 2005:
"Today's budget proposal makes it clear what
President Bush's priorities are: tax cuts for the
rich and tough luck for everyone else. Bush's new
budget slashes funding for agriculture, the
environment, and small businesses. And he wants to
make his tax cuts for the rich permanent, creating
deficits as far as the eye can see. George Bush is
leaving our children to pay off his record debt
increases.
"Worst of all, President Bush has resorted to
cheap gimmicks to disguise the full cost of his
plans. The President says we're at war, and he's
right. So where is the money in this budget for
Iraq and Afghanistan? He's going to wait until
after the election to tell the American people
what this war is really going to cost. I will
bring a higher standard of leadership to America,
and that means being honest with the American
people about how the government spends their
money." (2/3/2004)
Clark endorsed by ambassadors
Fifty-five former U.S. ambassadors and diplomats,
women and men who have served in some 36 countries
during the last four administrations, believe that
Wesley K. Clark is the right choice to lead
America at this critical time in the world.
"Serving as representatives of the United States
has allowed each of us to meet with world leaders
and see what terrific leadership looks like," said
Cynthia Schneider, Ambassador to theNetherlands
and co-chair of Ambassadors for Clark. "We know
that the world is more interconnected than ever
before, and so the impact of good and bad
leadership impacts Americaand the world more than
ever before. Wes Clark appreciates that and
ambassadors understand the interconnectedness of
the world and the critical need for a new leader
to repair and strengthen our global ties."
"I am thrilled by the endorsement of those that
have the respect of world leaders on every
continent," Wesley Clark said. "They understand
the importance of rebuilding America's alliances
and restoring our country to a position of
leadership based on cooperation and respect."
Ambassadors and Diplomats for Clark grew out of
the unique phenomena of the Draft Wesley Clark
movement. Not only did Wes Clark receive
encouragement to run from thousands of individuals
from across the U.S., the letters of support came
from people, both U.S. citizens and citizens of
many other nations, who understand that Wes Clark
is the person we need to lead America at this
crucial moment in history. The full list of
ambassadors and diplomats is below.
1.
Morton Abramowitz, Ambassador to Turkey and
Thailand, Assistant Secretary of State
2.
Brady Anderson, Ambassador to Tanzania.
3.
Christopher Ashby, Ambassador to Uruguay.
4.
Jeff Bader, Ambassador to Namibia, Senior
Director National Security Agency
5.
Robert Barry, Administrator, Agency for
International Development; Head, OSCE
6.
J.D. Bindenagel, Special Envoy for
Holocaust Issues.
7.
Donald Blinken, Ambassador to Hungary
8.
Amy Bondurant, Ambassador to OECD
9.
Avis Bohlen, Ambassador to Bulgaria,
Assistant Secretary of State
10.
George Bruno, Ambassador to Belize
11.
Paul Cejas, Ambassador to Belgium
12.
Tim Chorba, Ambassador to Singapore
13.
Bonnie Cohen, Under Secretary of State
14.
Nancy Ely-Raphel, Ambassador to Slovenia
15.
Ralph Earle, Deputy Director of State,
Chief U.S. Negotiator, SALT II Treaty
16.
Thomas H. Fox, Assistant Administrator,
U.S. Agency for International Development
17.
Mary Mel French, Chief of Protocol
18.
Edward Gabriel, Ambassador to Morocco
19.
Richard Gardner, Ambassador to Italy &
Spain
20.
Robert Gelbard, Ambassador to Indonesia &
Bolivia, Assistant Secretary of State
21.
Gordon Giffin, Ambassador to Canada
22.
Lincoln Gordon, Ambassador to Brazil,
Assistant Secretary of State
23.
Anthony Harrington, Ambassador to Brazil
24.
John Holum, Under Secretary of State
25.
William J. Hughes, Ambassador to Panama
26.
Swanee Hunt, Ambassador to Austria
27.
James Joseph, Ambassador to South Africa
28.
Rodney Minott, Ambassador to Sweden
29.
John McDonald, Ambassador to the United
Nations
30.
Stan McLelland, Ambassador to Jamaica
31.
Gerald McGowan, Ambassador to Portugal
32.
Arthur Mudge, Mission Director for Agency
for International Development
33.
Lyndon Olson, Ambassador to Sweden
34.
Donald Petterson, Ambassador to the Sudan,
Tanzania & Somalia
35.
Kathryn Proffitt, Ambassador to Malta
36.
Edward Romero, Ambassador to Spain &
Andorra
37.
James Rosapepe, Ambassador to Romania
38.
Nancy Rubin, United Nations Commission on
Human Rights
39.
James Rubin, Assistant Secretary of State
40.
David Sandalow, Assistant Secretary of
State
41.
Howard Schaffer, Ambassador to Bangladesh,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
42.
Teresita Schaffer, Ambassador to Sri Lanka
& Maldives
43.
David Scheffer, Ambassador at Large for War
Crimes
44.
Cynthia Schneider, Ambassador to the
Netherlands.
45.
Derek Shearer, Ambassador to Finland
46.
Richard Schifter, Assistant Secretary of
State
47.
Thomas Siebert, Ambassador to Sweden
48.
Richard Sklar, Ambassador to the United
Nations
49.
Peter Tarnoff, Under Secretary of State
50.
Peter Tufo, Ambassador to Hungary
51.
Arturo Valenzuela, Senior Director,
National Security Council
52.
William Walker, Ambassador to El Salvador &
Argentina, Head, Kosovo VerificationMission
53.
Vernon Weaver, Ambassador to the European
Union
54.
Phoebe L. Yang, Special Coordinator for
China Rule of Law, State Department
55.
Andrew Young, Ambassador to the United
Nations (2/3/2004)
Poll watching
Zogby tracking polls as of Monday:
Arizona, 55 delegates: polls open at 8:00
am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.
John Kerry 40 (36)
Wesley Clark 27 (24)
Howard Dean 13 (14)
Joe Lieberman 6 (6)
John Edwards 6 (4)
Dennis Kucinich 1 (3)
Al Sharpton less than 1 (less than 1)
Undecided 5 (13)
Missouri, 74 delegates: polls open at 7:00
am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET.
Kerry 50 (43)
Edwards 15 (14)
Dean 9 (8)
Lieberman 4 (3)
Clark 4 (3)
Sharpton 3 (3)
Kucinich less than 1 (1)
Undecided 11 (22)
Oklahoma, 40 delegates: polls open at 8:00
am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET
Clark 28 (25)
Kerry 25 (23)
Edwards 21 (18)
Dean 8 (8)
Lieberman 7 (8)
Kucinich 1 (1)
Sharpton 1 (1)
Undecided 9 (16)
S. Carolina, 45 delegates: polls open at
7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET.
Edwards 31 (30)
Kerry 24 (23)
Clark 11 (12)
Sharpton 10 (10)
Dean 9 (9)
Lieberman 4 (3)
Kucinich 1 (1)
Undecided 10 (12)
(2/3/2004)
Moving on
The race moves next to Michigan, 128 delegates and
Washington state, 76 delegates on Saturday, then
on to Maine, 24 delegates on Sunday, and Virginia,
82 delegates and Tennessee, 69 delegates both on
next Tuesday.
Clark squeaked out a victory in Oklahoma, allowing
him to stay alive for a while longer. Sen. Joe
Lieberman should have heeded his staffs’ advice
after New Hampshire and quit then. The race is
beginning to look like it will be a battle between
Senators John Edwards and John Kerry.
Howard Dean never made it into the top two in any
of the Super Seven states. Dean is facing a big
challenge Saturday in Washington where he hopes he
can find the Democrat wing of the Democrat Party.
Dean is not expected to do well in Michigan,
making Washington state all the more important
before Wisconsin, 72 delegates, Tuesday, Feb. 17.
Wisconsin is the only race on that Tuesday and the
Southerners will have to show up in the North as
well. Howard Dean has put his campaign future on
the line in Wisconsin.
"This entire race has come down to this: We must
win Wisconsin," the former Vermont governor said
in a memo to supporters. "A win there will carry
us to the big states on March 2 -- and narrow the
field to two candidates. Anything else will put us
out of the race."
Dean is asking supporters for $50 contributions so
he could raise $700,000 by Sunday to pay for
advertising in Wisconsin.
The Associated Press, Bloomberg, Fox News, CNN and
others have reassigned their top Dean reporters to
cover Kerry, Edwards or Clark."
Edwards announced that his campaign will begin
running the 30-second television ad "Two Americas"
in Wisconsin on Thursday. The campaign also
announced that Senator Edwards will stop in
Milwaukee on Saturday, February 7.
The ad "Two Americas" renews Edwards' pledge to
create an America that works for all of us. Under
George Bush, America has become divided-with one
America that is doing well and another that is
living paycheck-to-paycheck and struggling to get
by. Edwards will create one America by taking on
the insiders and big corporations and
strengthening the middle class and helping working
families.
Script for "Two Americas:"
"It seems today, we have two Americas. With two
health care systems...one for the privileged;
another rationed by insurance companies. Two
public school systems...one for the haves: and one
for everybody else. Two tax systems...where the
wealthy and corporations pay less; working
families pay more. Two governments one for
powerful interests and lobbyists; the other for
the rest of us. I'm John Edwards. And I approved
this message because together you and I can change
America and make it work for all of us."
Edwards was in NY hoping to raise $200,000 - half
at a Fifth Avenue party with actress Glenn Close
and the other half in Hasbrouck Heights, N.J.,
before doing the "Top Ten" list on Letterman.
(2/5/2004)
Who is the Southerner?
With Senator John Edwards and Wesley Clark still
both in the race, the question of who is the
person who can win in the South remains contested.
They are both concentrating on Southern states.
So, we will know which one stays in the race and
which one is out of the race soon. The best bet is
that Clark is already done and doesn’t know it.
However, Edwards cannot have a chance at winning
the nomination with another pretender to the
throne dividing the vote in the South. Kerry could
be perceived as not being electable in the South.
This could provide Edwards with votes he needs to
challenge Kerry for the nomination. Edwards needs
to defeat Clark in two upcoming states.
Clark has become more strident in his campaigning.
His latest statement expresses his tone:
"I'm not part of the Washington problem. I'm part
of the solution," Clark said during a stop in
Jackson, Tennessee. "There are some people in this
race that are part of the problem. The people I am
talking about are John Kerry and John Edwards."
"General Clark is not a Washington politician, but
it's questionable whether he's a Democrat either,"
replied Kerry (2/5/2004)
Edwards responds to Clark’s attack
Edwards’ Tennessee campaign spokesman Colin Van
Ostern today issued the following statement in
response to the negative attacks launched by
Wesley Clark earlier today:
"It's sad to see General Clark making these
negative attacks. The fact is, Senator Edwards
voted against Bush's tax cuts and has proposed
rolling back his tax cuts for the wealthy, he has
a plan to fix and fund No Child Left Behind, and
has been a strong advocate for more international
involvement in military action and reconstruction
in Iraq." (2/5/2004)
-
"They've spent months on the campaign trail
criticizing George W. Bush and his reckless
policies, when, in the 107th Congress, both men
voted with the president almost 70 percent of the
time,"
Wesley
Clark said.
-
"What I said is that I'm in favor
of choice..."
Wesley Clark explained. "I would hope that
it would be done only on rare occasions, but it's
a woman's right to choose." (2/7/2004)
Delegate Counts
As of Saturday, February 7: John Kerry 274
delegates, Howard Dean at 121, John Edwards at 110
and Wesley Clark at 82. It takes 2,162 to win the
nomination.
Upcoming delegates to win: Michigan had 128
delegates at stake in caucuses, and Washington
offered another 76. Maine, with 24 delegates at
stake, was holding caucuses on Sunday.
(2/7/2004)
Clark hitting harder
Wesley Clark is hitting harder against his
opponents. Clark is not likely to be a factor
after Tuesday’s voting if he doesn’t win
something. Under this pressure, he has turned to
parsing his opponents’ voting records, and using
that as his basis for accusing rival John Edwards
of not supporting veterans.
"When it came to decide between special interests
and veterans, Sen. Edwards blinked and he didn't
support our veterans when the going got tough,"
said Clark.
Clark also accused Edwards of voting against
spending an additional $1.3 billion for veterans
in 1999 and another $650 million for veterans
health care in 2001.
This week Clark has repeatedly sidestepped
reporters' questions about whether he will quit
the race if he loses in Tennessee. Instead, he has
acknowledged he is an "underdog" in the campaign,
having launched his candidacy late and being
without previous political experience.
(2/7/2004)
Clark & Kosovo
Clark’s past actions and claims in his often
stated heroic campaign in Kosovo are coming under
questioning in the Washington Post. His historical
papers are being reviewed and it seems his claim
that he fought the White House to continue the war
might not be accurate. What seems to be more
accurate is that the White House was not sure of
the way Clark was conducting the war:
In his papers, Clark made clear that he frequently
urged a harder line than Washington and its allies
preferred, accusing the Defense Department at one
point of urging "a sellout" in 1998 negotiations
over a plan to begin international monitoring of
Serbian activities in Kosovo. Berger, Clark said,
believed at the time that the risks posed by those
actions were "not real" and favored a weak
solution.
"All along, I always had a terrible feeling about
Milosevic, that we were really sort of making a
compromise with Hitler in 1943," Clark said. He
expressed particular regret that both Washington
and Europe had failed to intervene against
Yugoslavia in the summer of 1998, when, he said,
Milosevic had timed a campaign of ethnic cleansing
to coincide with Western officials' summer
vacations.
Berger disputed Clark's account of his views,
calling it "garbled hearsay that is just
incorrect," because "I was a strong advocate of
action on Kosovo."
The often told stories of Clark’s recklessness in
confronting the Russians, who were allies of
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, are
confirmed in the papers:
Clark told the historian he was unperturbed by the
unlikely prospect of a direct clash once the
British forces pushed the Russian vehicles with
their own. "Yes, they could shoot. When they
shoot, we're gonna shoot. And guess what, there's
a lot more of us than there are of them," Clark
said, recounting his feelings at the time. "So my
guess is, they're not gonna shoot!"
(2/7/2004)
Money check
John Kerry's campaign said it had raised $4.5
million since his come-from-behind win in Iowa on
Jan. 19. John Edwards’ campaign said it had raised
about $200,000 online in the first 24 hours after
his win in South Carolina, and Howard Dean's aides
said they had raised about $400,000 on Thursday
after his dramatic e-mail plea for help in
Wisconsin. (2/7/2004)
Clark denies Kosovo pressure
Wesley Clark, clashing with his own record of
recollections, denied he was put under pressure by
the Clinton administration to end the war in
Kosovo to avoid damaging Al Gore’s newly emerging
presidential campaign.:
Clark, campaigning in Virginia ahead of that
state's Democratic presidential primary on
Tuesday, said President Clinton and his national
security adviser, Sandy Berger, "were totally
committed to this operation. I never had any
political pressure to do anything but succeed."
Clark’s official papers of his 34-month stint were
requested by the Washington Post and widely
reported to show Clark frequently at odds with the
Clinton White House and the Pentagon. Such
revelations this week brought this response from
Clark:
Clark did not say he was
misquoted.
Rather, he called the report "a
stream-of-conscious dictation" with a historian.
"I had to assemble all of my memory and
think about what had actually happened. It was
such a complex period of time," Clark said.
He said he was never given any deadline to end the
war and there was no desire by the White House to
end bombing in Kosovo.
However, Clark’s told NATO's official historian,
"There were those in the White House who said,
'Hey, look, you gotta finish the bombing before
the Fourth of July weekend. That's the start of
the next presidential campaign season, so stop it.
It doesn't matter what you do, just turn it off.
You don't have to win this thing, let it lie.'"
(2/8/2004)
-
"There were those in the White House who said, 'Hey, look, you gotta
finish the bombing before the Fourth of July weekend. That's the start
of the next presidential campaign season, so stop it. It doesn't
matter what you do, just turn it off. You don't have to win this
thing, let it lie.'"
Wesley Clark
told NATO's official historian.
-
Clark, campaigning in Virginia ahead
of that state's Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, said
President Clinton and his national security adviser, Sandy Berger,
"were totally committed to this operation. I never had any political
pressure to do anything but succeed."