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New Gallup Poll: Bush by 13 points!

USA Today: The newest Gallup poll, conducted Monday-Wednesday, shows President Bush has taken a 13-point lead over John Kerry among likely voters. Bush is at 55% to Kerry’s 42% among likely voters. [LINK to poll results]

The article says the race has been reshaped since the Republican Convention:

The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.

With 46 days until the election, analysts say the proposed presidential debates offer Kerry his best chance to change the race.

"It doesn't look like the new consultants and strategies of attacks are the right ones" for Kerry, says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. Kerry in recent weeks added veterans of the Clinton White House to his team and began criticizing Bush more sharply on Iraq and other issues.

Dowd says Kerry at this point would "have to defy history" to defeat a sitting president.

Another poll, conducted by a Pew Research Center, was taken earlier (Saturday through Tuesday) shows Bush with only a one-point lead over Kerry.

Presidential debates have historically shifted public opinion, and hence how votes are cast and elections won or lost:

In 1980, Ronald Reagan was down 8 points in the Gallup Poll in late October but won in a landslide after doing well in the only debate held with President Carter.

Former Gore campaign manager Donna Brazile likens Kerry to the legendary race horse Seabiscuit: "Sen. Kerry is like Seabiscuit: He runs better from behind." But others in the Democratic Party "have begun pushing the panic button," Brazile said.