Iowa, Minnesota & Wisconsin
Analysis by: Roger Wm. Hughes
The upper Midwest blue states of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin remain
the critical area in the Bush Strategy. Today, Bush is in Iowa to sign
legislation that extends marriage penalty relief and the $1,000 child
tax credit until 2010.
On Wednesday, Bush will be in Pennsylvania talking about his plan for
more restrictive medical liability laws and will attend a campaign
rally. On Thursday, Bush travels to Wisconsin. Following Friday's
presidential debate in St. Louis, Bush will be in Minnesota on
Saturday.
The "Global Test" remains the driving message of the Bush campaign and
Kerry has put up a campaign ad. Here is the transcript of the Kerry
ad:
Narrator: "George Bush lost the debate. Now he’s lying about
it. This is what you heard John Kerry really say:
John Kerry: "The president always has the right for
pre-emptive strike."
John Kerry: "I will hunt and kill the terrorists,
wherever they are."
Narrator: "But here’s something new about George Bush –
newspapers report he withheld key intelligence information from the
American public so he could overstate the threat Iraq posed. Bush
rushed us into war. Now, we’re paying the price. It’s time for a fresh
start."
John Kerry: "I’m John Kerry, and I approved this
message."
Of course that isn’t what Kerry really said. What he really said in
the debate was:
"No president, through all of American history, has ever ceded, and
nor would I, the right to preempt in any way necessary to protect the
United States of America. But if and when you do it, Jim, you've got
to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test
where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing
what you're doing, and you can prove to the world that you did it for
legitimate reasons," said John Kerry.
The Bush campaign has their own version on the air of what happened
concerning global test:
Narrator: "He said he'd attack terrorists who threaten America.
But at the debate, John Kerry said America must pass a 'global test'
before we protect ourselves. The Kerry doctrine: A global test.
"So we must seek permission from foreign governments before protecting
America? So America will be forced to wait while threats gather?
President Bush believes decisions about protecting America should be
made in the Oval Office, not foreign capitals."
As the next four weeks goes by, there remains the question of what the
second issue of importance will be to the voters in the upper Midwest.
The demographics of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin suggest that it will
be healthcare because of the high percentage of elderly Americans in
those states. This could be the issue that determines who wins the
election. The Kerry camp is currently heavily advertising on the
healthcare issue in these states.
The question also remains as to whether these three states will remain
the battleground of the battleground states. In studying the electoral
map and what both sides are doing in these states, the answer is yes.
USA/Times/Gallup Poll: dead even
USA/Times/Gallup poll has the Presidential race dead even at 49
percent each and Ralph Nader at 1 percent.
"This is an even-up race that's going to be decided by everything that
happens in the next 30 days," says Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, calls the dead
heat no surprise. "We always said this race would be tight - when we
were up and when we were down," said Dowd.
Hoo’ah Bush: 70% military vote
Military Times tried to get a fix on which candidate soldiers would
vote for and the answer came back, although unscientific, 70 percent
for Bush.
USA Today reports [LINK]
that Kerry is in deep trouble with this demographic group:
"You can't dismiss" the results, said Peter Feaver, a Duke University
political scientist who for years has studied the political leanings
of the U.S. military. Feaver said it's unlikely that Bush will receive
70% of votes cast by military personnel. But the results suggest it
will be difficult for Kerry to make substantial gains among a group
that has strongly supported Republican presidential candidates in the
post-Vietnam era.
Survey USA Poll shows Bush up
A Survey USA poll, conducted post-debate, shows the following results:
Florida:
Bush leads 51%-46% and Martinez (R) lead 50%-46%
Nevada:
Bush leads 50%-46%
Alabama:
Bush leads 62%-34%
New Jersey:
Kerry leads 50%-45%
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