Tomorrow’s results will once
again knock candidates out of the race. At this
point unless Clark improves his standing he will
begin to bleed the resources needed to win the
nomination. The big story is not the winners –
it’s the losers who cannot continue.
Kerry is the one who hit the
home run on Sunday with the talking heads,
including being on “60 Minutes”. He may now find
himself in a tightening race. However, this is the
guy who risked it all on Iowa and has found a new
life for his campaign. He is in the hunt for the
Presidency once again.
Speaking of “60 minutes” Kerry
mentioned how he was intimidated by his wife’s
wealth – a story also carried in the
meanwhile, admitted in the largely glowing ``60
Minutes'' profile that he was intimidated by the
ketchup heiress' millions when they started
first, I was a little bit, actually, sort of
intimidated by that. I think it's one of the
reasons I was cautious,'' Kerry said. ``But then,
you know, emotions and feelings take precedence,
and you take what comes with it. I'm not worried
about it.'' Heinz Kerry then interjected, ``I came
Of course the big questions is
whether Kerry really meant what he said about the
"Everybody always makes the
mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response
to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore
proved he could have been president of the United
States without winning one Southern state,
including his own," said Kerry.
If you are wondering what Kerry
will be hit on concerning his record you might
opposition to mandatory minimum sentences for
dealers who sell drugs to children"
"voting against the death penalty for terrorists"
"efforts to provide cash benefits to drug addicts
"onetime opposition to a modest work requirement
for welfare recipients"
"supporting more than half a trillion dollars in
tax increases--including hikes in gas taxes and
Social Security taxes"
"accepting free housing and other goodies for
himself from friendly influence-peddlers"
serving as Lt. Governor under Dukakis when
Massachusetts "famously furloughed more than 500
murders and sex offenders under a program Kerry
later defended as tough" (1/26/2004)
Michigan Labor needs a home
Sen. John Kerry offers this
story from the Detroit press on his website:
than two weeks before the Feb. 7 Democratic
presidential primary, Big Labor is split on which
of the remaining candidates to back with its
substantial money and foot soldiers.
week’s Iowa caucus purged the field of labor
champion Dick Gephardt, a Missouri congressman who
quit after he limped to a fourth-place finish
despite his heavy blue-collar union support,
including the Teamsters.
Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who had the support of
public-employee unions, came in third in Iowa,
after leading the polls for months. Massachusetts
Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John
Edwards finished first and second, respectively.
where does labor go now?
going to regroup,” said Mark Gaffney, president of
the 700,000-member Michigan AFL-CIO. “The unions
are going to, on their own, decide who to back.
And I’m afraid the labor movement is going to
voters, like Darrell Stewart of Detroit, have not
decided who would make the best president.
“Nobody really stands out,” said Stewart, a
Detroit bus driver and longtime member of the
Amalgamated Transit Union. “If Hillary Clinton
were running, I’d vote for her, but I need to see
more from the other Democratic candidates before I
make a decision.”
Gaffney lamented the loss of Gephardt from the
“Gephardt would have made a great president. He’s
best on the issues. He just didn’t turn people
on,” he said.
Gaffney personally backs Edwards. But Lu
Battaglieri, president of the politically potent
Michigan Education Association, personally backs
Kerry, who is supported by firefighters and
utility workers. Neither of their state unions,
however, officially has endorsed a candidate.
United Auto Workers, the biggest affiliate in the
Michigan AFL-CIO and the most powerful force in
the Michigan Democratic Party, remains neutral.
Gaffney does not expect the UAW and the Teamsters
to endorse before Michigan’s Feb. 7 vote.
a reflection of the field,” Gaffney said. “The
field is varied ... but there’s not that one
candidate yet. Folks all have that sort of
different opinion on who is the best.”
LeRoy Carter is standing firm behind his support
for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, an early
front-runner who came in third in the Iowa caucus.
Carter admires Dean’s tenacity.
a Democrat. I think there are too many closet
Republicans calling themselves Democrats,” said
Carter, 50, of Ann Arbor, a staff representative
for Michigan AFSCME Council 25.
first significant Michigan fallout from his upset
victory in Iowa, Kerry won the endorsement of two
are the Grand Rapids-based Local 951 of the United
Food and Commercial Workers, whose 34,000 members
consist primarily of workers at 80 Meijer stores,
and the 20,000-member Retail, Wholesale and
Department Store Union Michigan Council.
951 President Robert Potter pledged “vigorous”
efforts on Kerry’s behalf, as well as financial
claims “swelling support” in Michigan. His backers
include ex-Gov.James J. Blanchard, Dan Mulhern,
Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s husband, and co-chair,
with Blanchard, of Kerry’s Michigan campaign.
Granholm said she may endorse a candidate between
Tuesday’s New Hampshire’s primary and the Michigan
weighing options are Detroit Mayor Kwame
Kilpatrick and Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie
Stabenow. Ex-U.S. Sen. Don Riegle of Michigan
endorsed Kerry Friday.
some of his federation’s affiliates neutral or
embracing Kerry or Dean, why does Gaffney support
tell people, ‘If you love Dick Gephardt, you’re
going to at least like John Edwards.’ Similar
background. Middle class. Father was a mill
worker. Mother had to make ends meet for the
family. And by the way, his dad’s mill closed
down. So John Edwards understands what I think is
the biggest issue in this country: job loss.”
Sen. John Kerry leads Howard
Dean 31 percent to 28 percent In New Hampshire in
the newest poll. Sen. John Edwards jumped three
points to narrowly trail Wesley Clark for third
place, 13 percent to 12 percent. Sen. Joe
Lieberman remains static at 9 percent.
“I love New Hampshire!
And I love Iowa, too!”
John Kerry said.
"Now this campaign goes
on to places all over this country, and I ask
Democrats everywhere to join us so that we can
defeat George W. Bush and the economy of
I have spent my whole
life fighting against powerful interests — and
I've only just begun to fight,"
John Kerry said
"We'll see if John Kerry
can take the number of body blows that Howard Dean
did and still be standing,"
Tricia Enright said.
Kerry ran best among
voters who put the highest priority on leadership
and political experience. Dean defeated Kerry
among voters who placed the highest priority on a
candidate who would offer new ideas and bring
about the greatest change.
-- writes Ronald
Brownstein of the LA Times. (1/28/2004)
IPW Analysis: Money and organization
It is all about money and
organization now. Candidates will hardly be able
to get to states holding elections and caucuses
more than twice. The question is, who can play in
all of the states? And it looks like the answer
is, Howard Dean will. How many states and how much
money Sen. John Kerry can pony up will be a big
Spending the money can be a
For example if you wanted to put
together three new TV ads -- one each for the
Midwest, South, and another for the Southwest --
it would require going to these states with the
candidate, putting together the taping crew,
editing the tapes, copying, shipping to the
stations, paying in advance and signing the forms.
It is about money and organization.
The following states are up next
2004: Delaware presidential primary
2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential
2004: Missouri presidential primary
2004: Arizona presidential primary
2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses
2004: Virginia GOP caucuses
2004: Oklahoma presidential primary
2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses
There was discussion in the Dean
camp about not fighting the war on all fronts.
Advisers urged Dean to concentrate on a few states
to conserve resources. But he vetoed the strategy,
insisting his campaign is muscular enough to
compete nationally according to the
In an interview with the
Associated Press, Dean acknowledged that aides
urged him to skip South Carolina. "There was some
discussion about it," he said. "I never gave it
Dean raised more than $200,000
in the 24 hours before the primary, but has been
spending money just as fast — and he will keep up
the pricey pace with his new strategy.
Kerry & Dean in the Battle of the States
Kerry is going to Missouri first
and John Norris, who ran Iowa next door, is
heading there on Kerry’s behalf as well. Kerry has
also picked up good Gephardt people in Missouri.
He needs to win Missouri to keep his string going
and delegate-rich Missouri is a prize worth
Dean will fall back on his union
support from AFSME and SEUI in Missouri. There
were hard feelings between Gephardt staff and
those unions before. Missouri will be a very
interesting battleground on Feb. 3. Aides to Mr.
Gephardt said on Monday that he would not endorse
anyone before the contest there.
Kerry will receive the benefit
of being the double winner and money should come
in. He will also receive more press attention than
the other candidates in the upcoming states
because of his wins.
A state to watch is Oklahoma,
where Rep. Dick Gephardt had run up a large number
of endorsements from union members and party
faithful. If these previous Gephardt supporters
start going in mass to Kerry in Oklahoma, Dean
will have a hard time putting up the firewall.
Dean, it seems, is interested in
visiting Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin. He
may be at $5 million in the bank at this point.
Will those Deanies throw their plastic credit
cards at the cyber-bat and keep Dean alive? How
long will it take for the Deanies to pay off this
credit card financed campaign? Will they provide
the increasing millions of dollars to rollover the
Democrat establishment and win the nomination? How
bloody will this get? Will Dean get a million
contributors at $100 each?
It could get very bloody,
according to the
But House Minority Leader Nancy
Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it will probably be another
month before the nomination is certain. "Kerry has
been impressive," she said, "but we have to see
how this plays out in the rest of the country."
LA Times reports:
Dean's failure to win the
primary is ominous for his presidential hopes. New
Hampshire has among the country's greatest
concentrations of highly educated, socially
liberal voters, the group that had been most
attracted to his candidacy.
More than 60 % of Tuesday's
voters held at least a four-year college degree;
the share of college graduates casting ballots in
South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma — some of
the key contests next Tuesday — is likely to be
Dean did best only among voters
who described themselves as "very liberal," while
Kerry carried moderates, liberals and
Kerry -- what now?
South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn
and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack intend to endorse Kerry,
officials said Wednesday -- a coup for the
Democratic presidential front-runner. Iowa
Governor Tom Vilsack’s wife previously endorsed
Kerry in the Iowa Caucuses. This puts Vilsack at
odds with Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who endorsed Dean.
Harkin is the one who warmed up the crowd prior to
the Dean I have a Scream speech -- the same
thing he did at Senator Paul Wellstone’s funeral.
Gov. Vilsack is traveling to neighboring Missouri
to make the his Kerry endorsement.
An AP analysis of the delegate
count shows Kerry winning 13 delegates and Dean
capturing nine. The others fell under the 15
percent threshold for claiming delegates.
Kerry is competing in all
seven-state contests on Feb. 3 (including tiny
North Dakota), where 269 delegates to the
Democratic convention are at stake. That
represents 12 percent of the delegates needed to
claim the nomination. Kerry's bought television ad
time in all seven states.
Watch for how Kerry deals with
his Congressional record as a front-runner. The
Washington Post reports:
Kerry said he would use his
candidacy to challenge Bush and the "influence
peddlers, the polluters, the HMOs" and other
corporations that he said had special access to
the White House. "We're coming," he said. "You're
going. And don't let the door hit you on the way
"The test of running for
the president is a long one and it's a tough one.
I expect to compete with the same underdog
mentality. I'm going to fight for every vote and
I'll be at it every day, every minute,"
said John Kerry.
Kerry told New Hampshire
that he had seriously disadvantaged people: "I've
been a prosecutor. I've sent people to jail for
the rest of their life." He punctuated this manly
indifference to syntax by noting that he is a gun
owner who supported the 1996 welfare reform. It
repealed the entitlement Aid to Families With
-- writes George
"To the extent to which
there is an establishment, it wants what the
Democratic primary voters want: the strongest
candidate in the fall,"
Evan Bayh of Indiana. "I think the
consensus is that John will be a more formidable
candidate than Howard."
"I think we understand
the case people would make against John Kerry: a
20-year voting record that some would characterize
said Chris Gates, the Colorado Democratic
Kerry is riding the wave
"All I was saying was if Al Gore
had won New Hampshire [in 2000], he would have
been president without a southern state," Sen.
John Kerry said. "I am not saying that's the way
"Florida will be the battleground
state in the election," Florida Democrat Chairman
Scott Maddox said, "and I think John Kerry can
absolutely carry the state of Florida. The thing
with Dean is he seems — his persona — is more
liberal. I don't think he's as liberal as they
make him out to be, but the question is could he
shake the moniker."
Kerry is riding the wave of
being the front-runner. He is beginning to clarify
his statement on not having to win a Southern
state and picking up important endorsements, as
reported yesterday by IPW. It is the product of
victory and a short schedule that takes us to the
Super Seven States on Feb. 3 primaries and
caucuses. Kerry’s front-runner status brings him
greater scrutiny in media coverage. Consensus is
that his record is worth scrutinizing, for it
could prove to be his undoing. Normally, the press
would be splashing this. But this is not a
‘normal’ week in the press -- Sunday is the Super
Bowl, and top media coverage will be on it instead
of politics, leaving Kerry nicely under the radar
going into the Feb. 3rd Big Seven
Primaries. Kerry also benefits from Howard Dean’s
campaign being in disarray and topping the media
coverage; therefore, keeping questions about
Kerry’s record out of the news.
Kerry still has skeptics. One
prominent South Carolina Democrat when asked about
Kerry’s statement that he could win the Presidency
without winning in the South, said, “That’s
crazy.” Kerry is the front-runner but he is not
the presumptive nominee. There seems to be a lot
of pressure from top Democrats to have the
selection of the presumptive nominee happen very
quickly. Dean’s being told by his Congressional
supporters that he ‘needs a number-one win soon,
or else,’ is an example of the wish by many to get
this bloody process over.
The way it is
However, the week leading into
the Feb. 3 Super Seven round of Presidential
selection process shows very little possibility of
an early end to the cacophony of sound coming from
the Democrats. Lieberman is still walking around
dead. Kucinich will never stop -- he may even be
on a ticket with Ralph Nader. It is possible. Dean
could still win. Wesley Clark doesn’t understand
he has proven himself irrelevant. John Edwards is
still the best campaign without money that the
Kerry is also benefiting in the
shift of region and that makes his vote to go to
war less salient. The Washington Post reports on
But with the primary
battleground shifting to southern and western
states where the war may be even less salient, it
appears that the hatchet has been buried among the
major candidates. And it was the voters who buried
"I think in their daily lives
more Democrats are hurt by Bush's war on work than
by his war in Iraq, and it should come as no
surprise that pocketbook issues would rise to the
fore," said Bruce Reed, president of the
Democratic Leadership Council, a centrist group
that has argued for more than a year that the
party should not build its message on an antiwar
National Republican Chairman Ed
Gillespie has some questions about why we should
trust Sen. John Kerry, "In 1984 he called for a
freeze on testing, production and deployment of
nuclear warheads, missiles, and other delivery
systems. In 1985, he introduced a Comprehensive
Nuclear Freeze Bill, and sponsored two amendments
to freeze SDI-related nuclear development until
the Soviet Union tested a nuclear weapon. In 1991,
he acknowledged Saddam Hussein's possession of WMD,
but voted against military action. In 1993, Sen.
Kerry introduced a plan to: cut the number of Navy
submarines and their crews; reduce the number of
light infantry units in the Army down to one;
reduce Air Force tactical fighter wings; terminate
the Navy's coastal mine-hunting ship program; and
force the retirement of no less than 60,000
members of the Armed Forces in one year... In
1995, Sen. Kerry voted to freeze Defense spending
for 7 years, cutting over $34 billion from
The Howard Dean Blog is alive
with the hopes that Sen. John Kerry has had
wrinkle-erasing Botox injections – an accusation
already denied by the Senator. Deanies think
catching Kerry in a lie about using Botox would
derail his candidacy.
Step One for the Deanies ,
though, is to first prove Kerry had the
wrinkle-erasing injections. Well, The NY Daily
News has a story featuring an M.D. confirming the
Deanies’ hopes that Kerry has indeed received
Gerald Ember, an attending plastic surgeon at
New York Presbyterian Hospital, agreed.
pictures ... show a marked absence of the
horizontal lines of the forehead and wrinkles
between the eyes. Only Botox or a forehead lift
would do this," he said. "And I say good for him!"
Kerry still on a roll
Sen. John Kerry is shown moving
ahead in Missouri and Arizona in Zogby polls. He
is continuing to target veterans, Kerry and Sen.
Fritz Hollings, former Sen. Max Cleland, and a
former Kerry crew member will join him for a S.
Carolina town hall meeting. The campaign calls its
veterans outreach the "veterans brigade," and that
it's more effective when veterans call other
veterans, rather than have civilians call. It is
what Kerry first patented in Iowa.
Kerry responded to the
Republican National Committee’s attack on him with
his characteristic bring it on.
"It's the greatest form of
flattery -- bring it on. Let's have this debate. I
have voted for the largest defense budgets in the
history of this country. I have voted for all the
biggest weapons systems. Unfortunately these
people haven't met a weapons system they don't
like. I have... That's the debate I want to have.
That's precisely the strength I bring. I don't
think they are doing the best job of making
America safe. I want them to know that I'm a
fighter -- I'm someone who says what I mean and
means what I say. I have a 35-year record of
standing up and fighting against special interests
in this country...," said Kerry.
The Debate coverage of the
debate was almost uniform in expressing that
Howard Dean was more subdued than in the past.
Most expressed the fact that Dean did not
challenge Sen. John Kerry until late into the
debate when he challenged him on his 11 bills on
health care that never became law.
The person who delivered the
most damning attack was Sen. John Edwards against
President Bush by questioning if Bush can walk and
chew gum at the same time:
I think the problem here is the
administration is not doing the things, number
one, that need to be done to keep this country
safe, both here and abroad.
And number two, the president
actually has to be able to do two things at once.
This president thinks his presidency is only about
the war on terrorism, only about national
security. Those things are critical for a
commander in chief. The president of the United
States has to actually be able to walk and chew
chewing gum at the same time, has to be able to do
two things at the same time.
here for a transcript of last night’s South
Carolina debate] (1/30/2004)
Kerry donations pour
Associated Press says John Kerry's lead dog
position in the Democratic Presidential Nomination
race is giving him big pull with the donors. It
seems like only yesterday when we learned of
Kerry’s taking out a $6 million mortgage to
finance his campaign -- as rival Howard Dean
commandeered a monstrous cyber war chest and
giddily proclaimed his Declaration of Financial
– sigh –
Today, “Miracle on
34th Street” Kerry has suddenly found his ‘Santa’;
as Howard Dean sits and counts his lumps of coal –
his once $41 million now a mere $5 million.
What’s Dean’s new mantra? Leaner and meaner?
Perhaps more apt would be, ‘boasted and toasted.’
Even his campaign workers are counting lumps of
coal, with a two-week pay loss. And there’s more
lumps to come, according the AP story:
When asked whether there would be
layoffs as Dean looks to cut costs, a senior
official said Dean was serious when he said the
campaign would be leaner. The official said that
rather than wholesale staff cuts, the campaign
would reduce or shift staff as it makes decisions
about which primary states to compete in.
Dean is already withholding staff
salaries and decided against airing ads in any of
the seven states holding delegate contests next
Meanwhile, back at Kerry’s
campaign, it’s The Second Coming of Santa. The AP
reports he took in more than $500,000 by Internet
in 48 hours following his New Hampshire win. That
brings his total online dollars to over $1.6 just
since the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. (1/30/2004)
Newest Kerry endorsements
Prominent South Carolina
Official Don Fowler had officially endorsed John
Kerry for president. Fowler is the former
Democratic National Committee chairman.
The Communications Workers of
America (CWA) endorsed John Kerry today on a
conference call with CWA President Morton Bahr.
Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-FL) endorsed John
Kerry via conference call this morning, citing his
strong record of leadership and experience as the
primary factors leading to his backing of Kerry.
Zogby's surveys, Kerry dominates in Missouri, with 45 percent.
Running a distant second in that state is North Carolina Sen.
John Edwards at 11 percent. If these numbers hold, Kerry could
sweep all 74 of Missouri's delegates.
was at 9 percent, Sen. Joseph Lieberman was at 4 percent,
Clark at 3 percent, Al Sharpton at 2 percent and Rep. Dennis
Kucinich at 1 percent.
Arizona, Kerry has 38 percent over Clark’s 17 percent, with
Dean at 12 percent, Edwards and Lieberman 6 percent, Kucinich
2 percent and Sharpton 1 percent.
was leading Kerry in Oklahoma 27 percent to 19 percent, with
Edwards right behind at 17 percent, Dean at 9 percent,
Lieberman at 5 percent and Sharpton and Kucinich at 1 percent.